History

The Delphi method was originally developed in the 1950s by the Rand Corporation for market research and sales forecasting. It is named after the ancient Greek oracle of Delphi. The method uses several rounds of questionnaires to aggregate the knowledge, judgments, or opinions of experts in order to address complex questions. Individual contributions are shared with the whole group by using the results from each questionnaire to construct the next questionnaire. It enables a large group of geographically dispersed experts to identify and refine a set of important domain concepts and specify the definition of those concepts in natural domain terminology. By now, the Delphi method has been used to evaluate strengths and weaknesses of information systems, the development and planning of these systems, as well as key issues and problems in information systems management.

Motivation

We consider the Delphi method an effective way for knowledge elicitation and acqusition of the experts in the field of process managment and workflow automation. It provides a sound and well researched theoretical framework for the consolidation of expert opinions.

Procedure

The panel members chosen for this study are vendors, users, and researchers of process management and workflow automation technology.They are invited to share their opinions using a questionnaire on our website. During a review round, the (anonymous) answers to the questionnaire are consolidated and presented to the expert panel for comments, extension, or critique. This process is repeated until a consolidated view emerges.

References

Linstone, H. A.; Turoff, M.: The Delphi Method. Techniques and Applications. Reading/Mass. 1975.

Linstone, H. A.: The Delphi Technique. In: Fowles, J.: Handbook of Futures Research. Westport/Connecticut, London 1978, pp. 273-300.

Questions?

If you have questions regarding the study or its results, please contact Michael zur Muehlen.

For panelist's instructions, please refer to this page.